There was the bombshell publication later in 2019 of photos in which Trudeau wore blackface. There was the time he allegedly pressured his justice minister to give a get-out-of-jail-free card to a Quebec-based engineering giant that faced bribery charges. There was his family’s holiday visit in 2016 to the island in the Bahamas owned by the Aga Khan. Helming the party for roughly a decade, Trudeau has accumulated his share of baggage, something that would typically raise obvious questions of succession. Overall, signs point to a likely Conservative win unless something changes. “They probably hear things about battery plants and investments in a green economy - and I would suspect most people support that kind of thing, but they don’t see a connection between those specific events and outcomes and the broader kind of story that the Liberals want to be able to tell.” “I don’t get a sense that they have a clear understanding of exactly what the government’s plan is,” says Abacus pollster David Coletto. And on the direction of the country.Īverage voters appear to have lost the thread the Liberals are spinning. The negatives have worsened since the 2021 election: For the PM. Factor in the margin of error and the race between Liberals and Conservatives is a statistical tie.īut it’s the trends below the surface that should give party rank and file pause as they chatter away in the bars and backrooms of Ottawa. Greg MacEachern, a Liberal lobbyist and former Parliament Hill staffer, sums up the state of play using a well-worn adage most recently deployed by President Joe Biden at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner: “Don’t compare me to the all-mighty, compare me to the alternative.” Top-line figures in a new poll from Abacus Data - 33 percent Conservatives, 31 percent Liberals - suggest an election today would be tight. The prime minister will make his case in a headline speech that opens the convention on Thursday night. All of it forces a question, whether said out loud or not: Is Justin Trudeau ready for the fight?

Poilievre won’t physically be at the convention, but nor will he be far - fuel for chit chat at boozy receptions and the motivation for any strategizing that takes place.

Taking Wing by Michael A. Martin